World Famous Comics: Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
Twilight in the Desert: The Coming Saudi Oil Shock and the World Economy
By: Matthew R. Simmons Publisher: Wiley Average Rating: Binding: Paperback Label: Wiley Number of Items: 1 Number of Pages: 464 Publication Date: June 05, 2006
Product Description: Twilight in the Desert reveals a Saudi oil and production industry that could soon approach a serious, irreversible decline. In this exhaustively researched book, veteran oil industry analyst Matthew Simmons draws on his three-plus decades of insider experience and more than 200 independently produced reports about Saudi petroleum resources and production operations. He uncovers a story about Saudi Arabia’s troubled oil industry, not to mention its political and societal instability, which differs sharply from the globally accepted Saudi version. It’s a story that is provocative and disturbing, based on undeniable facts, but until now never told in its entirety. Twilight in the Desert answers all readers’ questions about Saudi oil and production industries with keen examination instead of unsubstantiated posturing, and takes its place as one of the most important books of this still-young century.
Must read (along with Boone Pickens recent book) for anyone who spends decent money on oil If you're the type of person who likes to know how things work, this book will clearly be one of the most interesting books you'll read. Before reading this book, I'd just fill up at the pump and go...never really think about how the oil got to the gas station. Most Americans take this step for granted. Next time you're on the highway though, look around, and really think about all the people driving--just like you--and try to imagine how so much oil could be taken out of the ground now and in the past several decades to satisfy all the drivers out there---truly amazing. Matthew Simmons goes thorough this process--step by step--of how people tirelessly explore for oil, extract it--now with great technical difficulty, and process it. You will not look at the world in the same way after reading this book.
As Matthew Simmons points out here, the world's largest oil fields in Saudi Arabia (and other major oil exporting countries) have matured, and it is increasingly technically difficult and expensive to extract oil from the elephant fields there. We are probably nearing a time of historical importance--a time when the easy oil has been extracted--and only expensive oil remains in the ground for future use. The ramifications of this theory are immense--especially considering how growth in the Chinese and Indian economies could fuel increases in oil demand in the near future. Unfortunately, Simmons offers few practical solutions for dealing with the ramifications of his theory. Rather, T. Boone Pickens comes to the rescue on this point with his "Picken's Plan"--as described in his book "The First Billion is the Hardest." Picken's book is highly recommended after reading Twighlight in the Desert. Let us pray our politicians head the warnings of these two prescient authors.
Must Read On This Subject Matt Simmons has done his homework, and this book will be sited and quoted for years to come. If you want to see what the future looks like as we sail into the energy "perfect storm", this book will take you there.
A great book A very interesting book. A beautiful rendition of speculative thought. The possibilities are thought provoking.
Twilight in the Desert Excellent book well researched by Mr. Simmons, who years ago predicted $100 oil when most of the major oil companies were selling properties and downsizing. They ignored his predications and now are smaller and less prepared for expansion while oil exceeds $100 per bbl. His style may be a bit repetitive and dry for the non engineer or person familiar with the oil and gas industry but he makes a very plausible case.
Well researched, but fails to "connect the dots" Mr. Simmons' purpose in writing this book was to assess how long Saudi Arabia will be able to sustain its present rate of oil production. His assessment required extensive detective work as well as "reading between the lines" of Saudi Arabia's official statements because the Saudi's are highly secretive about their oil fields and they do not make any of their production data available to the public. Mr. Simmons concluded that Saudi Arabia will not be able to sustain its current production rates much longer and will soon enter a period of rapid decline.
Mr. Simmons' thesis is that conditions experienced at individual oil wells can be extrapolated to determine the level of depletion of the entire oil field in which the wells are located. As background, Mr. Simmons used old, but comprehensive, data on Saudi oil fields that were compiled prior to when Saudi Arabia nationalized its oil industry. This data establishes which Saudi oil fields are the largest and most productive. Mr. Simmons then analyzed more recent papers written on individual wells within the most important Saudi oil fields to see if these wells were exibiting signs consistent with oil field depletion. For example, oil wells with problems such as "gas caps" or "high water cuts" can be an indication that the entire oil field is in an advanced state of depletion. Mr. Simmons concluded that problems indicative of depletion are occurring at wells in Saudi's most productive oil fields. Mr. Simmons also noted that production increases at smaller fields and the development of newly discovered fields have been barely sufficient to offset the declines at the older fields.
Mr. Simmons is a formidable researcher, but his writing skills leave something to be desired. Rather than condense the complex technical information into coherent conclusions, he simply repeats the same facts over and over, apparently hoping that the reader will "connect the dots" for himself. Because of this, I probably missed many of the points Mr. Simmons was trying to make. Better organization and summary of the complex material could have made the book half as long as twice as understandable.
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